2023 Super Bowl – WR and TE prop bets, picks, odds, and tips
Super Bowl LVII is just over a week away and now is the perfect time to get ahead on all of the bets that will coming in up until kickoff from State Farm Stadium in Phoenix at 6:30 p.m. ET Feb. 12.
Our betting analysts have you covered with everything you need to know about the receiving props for the big game.
All odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
What is your favorite receiving prop for Super Bowl Sunday, among RBs and WRs?
Doug Kezirian: Isiah Pacheco over 12.5 receiving yards. This might only need one reception to cash the over. The rookie has big-play ability and will be used as a safety valve against a pass rush that led the NFL in sacks. Against Cincinnati, he had five catches for 59 yards. A lot of that was due to Patrick Mahomes‘ injured ankle and that should be healthier but we only need 13 yards. The Philly defense is stout and Mahomes will need to dump it off to Pacheco. This is a strong play.
Click here for the best QB/RB prop bets and tips for Super Bowl LVII.
Anita Marks: DeVonta Smith over 62.5 total yards. Smith was averaging nine targets a game from mid-November until the 49ers game. I expect that trend to pick up again against a Chiefs secondary that is young and not very good.
Seth Walder: I’ll go with Pacheco over 12.5 receiving yards, riding the hot hand off his five-catch, 59-yard performance against the Bengals in the AFC Championship. With the Eagles’ passing defense being so strong and Patrick Mahomes less mobile than usual, I can see the Chiefs relying more on Pacheco in the passing game.
André Snellings: I like DeVonta Smith with a long reception over 23.5 yards and over 62.5 total yards. I expect the Eagles to lean on their run game, which should pull the Chief’s defense closer to the line of scrimmage, and allow for some big plays. The Eagles didn’t have to pass much to get by the overmatched Giants or the QB-less 49ers, but in the six games before that, Smith averaged 6.5 receptions for 97.8 yards per game. I expect him to hit at least one long one, and go over his props.
The Super Bowl features two of the top TEs in the game in Travis Kelce and Dallas Goedert. What do you think of their yardage and receptions totals?
Snellings: Kelce over 6.5 receptions. Regardless of how the Eagles defend him, I think Mahomes is going to Kelce … full stop. They may limit his yards, but he’s going to get the touches. In his past six games, going back through Week 15 of the regular season, Kelce has averaged 8.3 receptions per game (that number goes up to 10.5 rec/game in playoffs). Add in the Chiefs’ injuries on the outside, and Kelce should be a busy man.
Walder: I like Kelce under 78.5 receiving yards (+102). This is a scary bet to make, of course, but I think it’s where the value is. Kelce presents mismatch opportunities, but I think the Eagles are set up fairly well to contain him with defensive backs C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Avonte Maddox being potential options against him. Where you’re generally scared is with a linebacker on Kelce, but the Eagles are in pretty good shape against him on that front: T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White both allowed lower-than-average yards per coverage snap. Plus, the Eagles’ outside corners are so good that it should allow them to focus extra resources on stopping Kelce. Lastly, don’t sleep on the juice here — we’re getting plus-money!
Marks: Goedert over 45.5. KC’s defense is not good against TEs. Their linebacking core is subpar in coverage and are very vulnerable 10 to 15 yards in the middle of the field, which is Dallas’ wheelhouse. I expect the Eagles to exploit that weakness. I lean toward the over with Kelce as well — especially if KC’s WR core is depleted. However, the Eagles have not allowed a TE to put up over 70 receiving yards against them this season.